Navia Weekly Roundup (Oct 5 – 9, 2026)
Week in the Review
Indian equity markets snapped their eight-week losing streak, the longest in 25 years, amid heightened volatility during the week, despite persistent foreign fund outflows, elevated crude oil prices, rising global bond yields, and the Reserve Bank of India’s shift to a calibrated tightening stance after raising the repo rate by 25 basis points to 5.50%.
Indices Analysis
For the week, the BSE Sensex rose 0.78%, to end at 72,472.33, while the Nifty 50 added 0.43%, to close at 22,520.45. The Bank Nifty gained 0.25% to 55,256.65, while the Fin Nifty advanced 0.93% to 24,968.50. The green close ends the longest run of weekly declines in 25 years, a stretch that had shaved 8.7% off the Nifty and 8.4% off the Sensex; only 2001 saw a longer, nine-week streak.
The week swung wildly. It opened with a banking-led rally on Monday after HDFC Bank’s leadership announcement, and Tuesday added nearly 1% more as markets positioned for the RBI decision. Then came Wednesday’s shock: the Monetary Policy Committee unanimously raised the repo rate by 25 basis points to 5.50%, its first hike since February 2023, and shifted its stance to calibrated tightening by a 4:2 majority, wrong-footing markets that had expected a pause. Thursday paid the price, with the Sensex crashing 1,045.46 points to 71,593.24 and erasing about ₹10 lakh crore of market value as traders also weighed the possibility of further hikes and open-market bond sales.
Friday turned it around. Tata Consultancy Services reported September-quarter profit and revenue in line with estimates and declared a dividend, sending the stock up 4.73% intraday and nearly 5% higher for the week, igniting a 3% surge in the Nifty IT index. With crude easing on a pause in US-Iran tensions, the Nifty jumped 1.30%, its sharpest single-day rally in over two months, to seal the weekly gain. A Kotak Institutional Equities note arguing that pro-cyclical loan yields could expand private bank margins after the hike kept banks bid, with HDFC Bank up 2.30% on Friday. The rupee closed at ₹96.73 per dollar, still under pressure, and attention now turns to September CPI on Monday, expected near the top of the RBI’s tolerance band, WPI on Wednesday and the unfolding Q2 earnings season, with the Nifty trading around 19 times trailing earnings, below its long-term median.
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Sector Spotlight
| Top Sector Gainers | Change | Top Sector Losers | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Capital Markets | +2% | Realty | -3% |
| FMCG | +2% | Metal | -3% |
| PSU Bank | +2% | Auto | -2% |
| Private Bank | +2% | Defence | -1.5% |
| IT | +1% |
Mixed trend seen on the sectoral indices front with Nifty Capital Markets, FMCG, PSU Bank and Private Bank added 2% each, and Nifty IT index rose 1%; however, Nifty Realty and Metal shed more than 3% each, Nifty Auto index slipped 2%, and Nifty Defence index shed 1.5%.
Top Gainers and Losers
| Top Gainers | Change | Top Losers | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Trent | +13.11% | Adani Enterprises | -8.02% |
| Kotak Mahindra Bank | +6.01% | JSW Steel | -5.45% |
| HDFC Life Insurance | +4.83% | Bharat Electronics | -4.34% |
| BSE | +3.38% | Hindalco Industries | -4.05% |
| Axis Bank | +3.02% | Titan Company | -3.71% |
Trent led the gainers with a 13.11% surge, hitting the upper circuit on Tuesday after a Q2 update showing revenue up 23% year-on-year and the Zudio chain crossing 1,000 stores, with HSBC assigning a ₹3,390 target. Kotak Mahindra Bank and Axis Bank rode the banking recovery, while HDFC Life and BSE also advanced. On the losing side, Adani Enterprises resumed its slide with an 8.02% fall, JSW Steel and Hindalco dropped with the metal index on tightening fears, Bharat Electronics tracked the defence index lower, and Titan logged a third straight week among the top losers.
Commodity Corner
| Commodity (MCX) | Weekly Close | Weekly Change |
|---|---|---|
| Gold (10g) | ₹1,48,909 | +0.77% |
| Silver (1kg) | ₹2,21,191 | -0.11% |
| Crude Oil (bbl) | ₹8,854 | +2.02% |
| Natural Gas (mmBtu) | ₹306.60 | +5.58% |
Commodities turned mostly green. Gold recovered 0.77% and crude oil added 2.02% on MCX even as it eased late in the week on truce hopes, while natural gas rallied 5.58%. Silver was the odd one out, slipping a marginal 0.11%.
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