Navia Monthly Wrap: September 2026 Insights

Nifty 50 Performance in September

September 2026 was the toughest month of the year for Indian equities. The Nifty 50 closed the month at 22,620.45 and the Sensex at 72,480.29, a second straight monthly decline and the worst month since March, with every benchmark in the snapshot below ending lower. The chart above tracks the index through the month, which ran from September 1 to September 30.

Index Snapshot

September Market Roundup

September 2026 was the toughest month of the year for Indian equities. The Nifty 50 fell 6.03% to 22,620.45 and the Sensex lost 5.82% to 72,480.29, a second straight monthly decline and the benchmarks’ worst month since March, with the selling spreading across the board: every index in the snapshot above closed lower, and Media was the only sector to finish in the green. The pressure came from several directions at once, the US Federal Reserve’s first rate hike since 2023, firm crude oil, foreign investors turning sellers after two months of buying, and a heavy IPO pipeline that pulled liquidity away from the secondary market. Defensives such as ITC and Coal India topped the month’s gainers.

Key Highlights

The Fed hikes, first since 2023: On September 16 the US Federal Reserve unanimously raised the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to 3.75% to 4.00%, its first increase in more than three years, citing elevated inflation and the energy shock from the Iran conflict, with its projections signalling one more hike in 2026. Higher US rates hit foreign flows into emerging markets and crushed rate-sensitive IT stocks, with the Nifty IT index down 11.18% as TCS and Infosys fell 12 to 15%.

FIIs turn sellers: Foreign institutional investors net sold about ₹17,131 crore of Indian equities through late September, NSDL data showed, after net buying ₹49,831 crore across July and August.

Regulatory ripples: Financial stocks fell 6.25% as the insurance regulator’s proposed caps on distribution commissions hit insurers and allied lenders, with Bajaj Finserv, Cholamandalam Investment and Max Financial Services dropping 12 to 14%, while tighter curbs on retail speculative trading added to the liquidity squeeze.

GST stays above ₹2 lakh crore: Gross GST collection for September came in at ₹2,03,521 crore, up 14.7% year-on-year and above the ₹2-lakh-crore mark for a third straight month, with import revenue up 25.9% to ₹65,525 crore and net collections up 18.1% to about ₹1.77 lakh crore. First-half FY27 gross collections stood at ₹12.46 lakh crore, up 11.6%.

IPO flood, NSE lists: The primary market stayed in overdrive even as the secondary market fell, with close to 30 mainboard debuts during the month per the Chittorgarh tracker. The long-awaited National Stock Exchange IPO listed at a modest 1.85% premium, while ESDS Software Solution more than doubled on debut. Analysts noted the sheer size of the pipeline drained liquidity from listed stocks.

Outlook

RBI policy on October 5 to 7: With the Fed now hiking and foreign flows under pressure, the MPC’s commentary on the rupee, liquidity and the rate path will matter as much as the decision itself, after four straight holds at 5.25%. Economists at Crisil, Nomura and HSBC now expect the MPC to deliver its first rate hike of the cycle in October.

GST Council on October 7: The 57th Council meeting, postponed from September 12 as New Delhi hosted the BRICS Summit, takes up input tax credit, refunds and registration reforms with collections running above ₹2 lakh crore for three months.

Earnings, crude and the Fed’s next step: The Q2 FY27 results season from mid-October, the path of crude oil and West Asia tensions, and the possibility of one more US rate hike this year remain the key swing factors; analysts see limited further downside after September’s fall, but expect any recovery to hinge on earnings, with festive-season demand a potential cushion.

Sectoral Movements

September’s sector map was a sea of red, with 13 of the 14 tracked indices closing lower and Media (up 1.66%) the lone gainer. IT was the worst performer, sliding 11.18% as the US rate hike squeezed the sector’s largest market, followed by Consumer Durables (9.36% lower), Auto (8.83% lower) and PSU Bank (6.89% lower). Financial Services fell 6.25% on the proposed insurance-commission caps, and even defensives offered little shelter, with FMCG down 3.30% and Pharma down 2.75%.

Company Performance

Commodities Month’s Change

IPO Performance – September

September IPOs: The primary market was the one corner of the market that stayed red-hot in September, with close to 30 mainboard debuts even as benchmarks slid. ESDS Software Solution more than doubled on listing and has nearly quadrupled over its issue price, SS Retail jumped 77% on debut, and the landmark National Stock Exchange IPO listed at a modest 1.85% premium, while issues such as Annu Projects and Skyways Air Services opened at a discount. The table below shows a selection of the month’s mainboard debuts with listing-day gains and the current gain over issue price, as tracked by Chittorgarh.

Disclaimer: The IPO performances mentioned are historical examples and not investment recommendations.

October NFO Lineup

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Top Reads From September!

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