Navia Monthly Wrap: October 2026 Insights
Nifty 50 Performance in October
October 2026 brought a sharp but narrow rebound for Indian equities. The Nifty 50 closed the month at 23,053.10 and the Sensex at 74,459.53, snapping a two-month losing streak and lifting both benchmarks to a six-month high, even as the mid and small cap indices in the snapshot below finished lower. The chart above tracks the index through the month, which ran from October 1 to October 30, with October 31 falling on a Saturday.
Index Snapshot
| Index | Start | End – Oct 30 | Change % |
|---|---|---|---|
| NIFTY 50 | 22,543.70 | 23,053.10 | 1.95% |
| Nifty Midcap 100 | 59,175.65 | 57,301.25 | 3.38% |
| Nifty Smallcap 100 | 19,249.20 | 18,463.60 | 4.02% |
| Nifty 100 | 23,655.50 | 23,971.55 | 1.04% |
| BSE Sensex | 72,192.89 | 74,459.53 | 2.73% |
| BSE 100 | 24,164.11 | 24,479.83 | 0.91% |
| BSE 150 Mid Cap | 16,117.04 | 15,521.49 | 3.93% |
| BSE 250 Small Cap | 6,977.09 | 6,557.02 | 6.27% |
October Market Roundup
October 2026 brought a sharp but narrow rebound. The Nifty 50 rose 1.95% to 23,053.10 and the Sensex gained 2.73% to 74,459.53, snapping a two-month losing streak and lifting the benchmarks to a six-month high, powered almost entirely by an 18% surge in IT stocks and the blockbuster listing of Jio Platforms. Beneath the headline, the market was far weaker: only 22 of the 50 Nifty stocks rose, the Nifty Midcap 100 fell 3.38% and the Nifty Smallcap 100 lost 4.02%, its worst month since March, as foreign investors kept selling, crude oil climbed again and the RBI began a new rate-hike cycle.
Key Highlights
RBI hikes, first since 2023: At its October 5 to 7 meeting the Monetary Policy Committee unanimously raised the repo rate by 25 basis points to 5.50%, its first increase since February 2023, and shifted its stance from neutral to calibrated tightening on a 4-2 vote. Governor Sanjay Malhotra cited the re-escalation of the West Asia conflict and hardening commodity prices, and raised the FY27 growth forecast to 7.1% and the inflation projection to 5.2%. The MPC minutes released on October 22 added that rate cuts are off the table in the near term and the policy action ahead can only be a hike or a pause.
IT roars back: The Nifty IT index jumped 18.06%, its best month since July 2020, as valuation comfort after a long slide, better-than-expected results and a correction in US and Indian bond yields pulled money into the sector. TCS (up 22%), Infosys (up 19%), Tech Mahindra and HCL Technologies swept the month’s gainers list, and four IT firms added more market value than the entire Nifty 50.
Jio Platforms lists: India’s largest IPO, a ₹30,188 crore issue subscribed 15.6 times, listed on October 28 at ₹1,358 against an issue price of ₹1,119, a 21.4% premium, and closed its first day at ₹1,417.50, nearly 27% above issue. The debut made Jio the second most valuable listed company and helped lift NSE-listed market capitalisation by about ₹3 trillion to ₹470.5 trillion, with 83 new listings during the month.
FPIs keep selling: Foreign portfolio investors pulled out over ₹48,000 crore from Indian equities through the fourth week of October, depository data showed, on elevated crude prices and geopolitical tensions, taking 2026 outflows past ₹3 lakh crore and weighing heavily on mid and small caps.
GST surges: Gross GST collection for October came in at ₹2.31 lakh crore, up 22.9% year-on-year, the sharpest growth rate this fiscal, led by a 42.2% jump in import revenue to ₹72,246 crore and a 15.8% rise in domestic revenue. Net collections rose 25.6% to ₹2.03 lakh crore, and April to October gross collections stood at ₹14.77 lakh crore, up 13.2%.
Crude climbs, Fed holds: Brent crude rose nearly 13% in October to around $117 a barrel, its fourth straight monthly gain, as attacks on shipping and Saudi energy infrastructure deepened supply worries. The US Federal Reserve held rates at 3.75% to 4.00% on October 28 in a 10-2 vote, with two members dissenting in favour of a hike, and markets now price a December increase.
Outlook For November
Earnings and breadth: The Q2 FY27 results season runs through mid-November, and with October’s gains concentrated in IT and a handful of large caps (only 22 of 50 Nifty stocks rose), the remaining results will decide whether the rally broadens. Analysts quoted by Business Standard expect returns to turn more earnings-driven than valuation-driven, and note that November has averaged about 2.5% returns over the past 25 years.
Festive and data calendar: NSE and BSE will hold the Diwali Muhurat trading session on Sunday, 8 November, from 2:20 PM to 3:30 PM. With neither the RBI nor the US Federal Reserve scheduled to meet in November, the October CPI print due on 12 November becomes the key rate signal of the month, as the first inflation reading after the RBI’s October hike and its guidance that the next move can only be a hike or a pause.
Crude and foreign flows: Brent ended October at about $117 a barrel, and FPIs had pulled out over ₹48,000 crore from Indian equities in the month by October 25. The oil trajectory and whether foreign selling eases remain the key swing factors for inflation, the rupee and market sentiment in November.
Sectoral Movements
October’s sector map was dominated by a single story. Nifty IT surged 18.06%, its best month since July 2020, as the sector snapped back from months of underperformance on better results and easing bond yields. Media (up 3.10%), PSU Bank (up 2.73%), Pharma (up 2.60%) and Private Bank (up 1.34%) also gained, while Nifty Bank and Financial Services were broadly flat. On the losing side, Metal fell 7.51% and Consumer Durables 5.71% as foreign selling and firm crude hit cyclicals, with Realty, Auto, Oil & Gas and FMCG also closing lower.
| Sector Index | 01-Oct | 30-Oct | Return % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nifty IT | 27,881.70 | 32,606.90 | 18.06% |
| Nifty Consumer Durables | 36,610.70 | 34,525.15 | 5.71% |
| Nifty Realty | 841.60 | 813.90 | 3.94% |
| Nifty PSU Bank | 7,988.10 | 8,234.85 | 2.73% |
| Nifty Bank | 54,583.05 | 54,686.95 | 0.10% |
| Nifty Financial Services | 24,611.90 | 24,712.20 | 0.30% |
| Nifty Private Bank | 26,737.60 | 27,053.50 | 1.34% |
| Nifty Auto | 26,117.75 | 25,422.70 | 3.31% |
| Nifty Media | 1,572.20 | 1,631.25 | 3.10% |
| Nifty FMCG | 44,386.00 | 43,609.20 | 2.02% |
| Nifty Oil & Gas | 10,566.25 | 10,303.25 | 2.89% |
| Nifty Pharma | 26,408.95 | 27,124.85 | 2.60% |
| Nifty Metal | 12,713.75 | 11,784.90 | 7.51% |
Company Performance
| Top Gainers (Month) | % | Top Losers (Month) | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| TCS | 22.04% | Shriram Finance | 16.24% |
| Infosys | 19.20% | Adani Enterprises | 11.16% |
| Tech Mahindra | 17.51% | Nestle India | 10.92% |
| HCL Technologies | 16.11% | Tata Steel | 9.06% |
| Trent | 15.09% | Coal India | 8.47% |
Commodities Month’s Change
| Asset | LTP – Oct 30 | Change % |
|---|---|---|
| Gold (MCX/10g) | ₹1,39,830 | 5.27% |
| Silver (MCX/1kg) | ₹1,82,442 | 17.49% |
| Crude Oil (MCX/bbl) | ₹9,728 | 13.34% |
| Natural Gas (MCX) | ₹281.50 | 2.66% |
IPO Performance – October
October IPOs: October was a landmark month for the primary market, with 18 mainboard listings and about ₹44,610 crore raised across the issues that closed during the month, headlined by Jio Platforms, India’s largest IPO, which listed at a 21.4% premium and ended its first day nearly 27% above issue. Tonbo Imaging, Orient Cables and Moneyview each opened more than 60% higher, while Acevector and Vishal Nirmiti listed at a discount and Runwal Enterprises debuted flat. The table below shows a selection of the month’s mainboard debuts with their listing-day gains over issue price, as tracked by Chittorgarh.
| Company | Listed | Listing Gain |
|---|---|---|
| Tonbo Imaging India Ltd. | Oct 23 | 65.71% |
| Orient Cables (India) Ltd. | Oct 5 | 65.44% |
| Moneyview Ltd. | Oct 1 | 61.76% |
| HD Fire Protect Ltd. | Oct 21 | 23.62% |
| Jio Platforms Ltd. | Oct 28 | 21.36% |
| SRIT India Ltd. | Oct 6 | 13.85% |
| Runwal Enterprises Ltd. | Oct 5 | 0.00% |
| Vishal Nirmiti Ltd. | Oct 8 | 2.27% |
| Acevector Ltd. | Oct 5 | 11.50% |
Disclaimer: The IPO performances mentioned are historical examples and not investment recommendations.
November NFO Lineup
| Fund Name | Open | Close |
|---|---|---|
| Kotak FMP – Series 336 – 125 Days – Direct (G) | 02 Nov | 04 Nov |
| Edelweiss Nifty Energy ETF | 30 Oct | 13 Nov |
| Kotak Nifty Realty Index Fund – Direct (G) | 26 Oct | 09 Nov |
| Invesco India Silver ETF | 27 Oct | 09 Nov |
| Invesco India Silver ETF Fund of Fund – Dir (G) | 27 Oct | 09 Nov |
Top Reads From October!
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