Pongal Patterns: Learning to Trade with Seasons
- A Harvest Morning with a Question
- The Cloud That Shows Balance
- Rules That Help Control Emotions
- A Pongal Promise and a Clear Path
A Harvest Morning with a Question
The village outside Thanjavur woke up early for Pongal. Smoke rose from clay pots as milk boiled over, sugarcane stalks leaned against doorways, and kolams filled the streets with neat white patterns. The festival air felt slow, warm, and hopeful.
Near the fields stood Karthik, who ran a small rice trading business, helping his mother adjust the Pongal pot. Nearby was Revathi, his cousin, who worked as a research analyst at a brokerage in Chennai. Muthu, their neighbour and a farmer, joined them with a bundle of freshly cut paddy.
As the pot boiled over, everyone shouted, “Pongalo Pongal!” Laughter followed.
Muthu wiped his hands and said casually, “In farming, timing is everything. Sow too early or too late, and you lose the crop.”
Karthik smiled but looked thoughtful. “That’s exactly my problem in trading. I know what to buy, but I never know when. I enter too early or too late.”
Revathi looked at the fields and said, “Then today is the right day to talk about timing. There’s a trading system that many traders study for this. It’s called the Ichimoku Cloud.”
Karthik raised an eyebrow. “Cloud? On Pongal morning?”
Revathi laughed. “It’s more grounded than it sounds.”
The Cloud That Shows Balance
They sat on the verandah as the sun rose higher. Revathi explained slowly.
“Ichimoku means ‘one glance’. The idea is to view trend, momentum, and support together. It was created by a Japanese journalist named Goichi Hosoda and refined over many years.”
She drew lines on the mud floor with a stick. “There are five parts. Don’t worry about the names. Focus on what they show.”
She continued, “The first line is the average of the highest high and lowest low of the last nine periods. This reflects short-term momentum. The second line does the same over twenty-six periods. That shows medium-term balance.”
Karthik nodded. “So these are not moving averages based only on closing price.”
“Correct. They use price range, not just close. That’s why many traders find them steadier.”
She pointed to the space between two drawn lines. “Now the cloud. It’s formed from the average of those two lines and projected forward. The cloud helps show potential support and resistance. When price is above the cloud, the trend is generally strong. Below the cloud, the trend is generally weak. Inside the cloud often means uncertainty.”
Muthu smiled. “Like weather. Clear sky, storm, or fog.”
Rules That Help Control Emotions
Revathi nodded. “Exactly. The rules are simple. Many traders look for price to stay above the cloud, the faster line to stay above the slower one, and the cloud ahead to slope upward before considering long positions. When price stays below the cloud and the cloud slopes downward, traders tend to stay cautious.”
She added, “There is also a lagging line. It shows today’s price plotted back in time. When that line stays above past price, it supports strength. If not, it suggests caution.”
Karthik frowned. “That sounds like many conditions.”
Revathi smiled. “That’s the point. It filters impulsive decisions. Ichimoku is not about predicting moves. It’s about staying aligned with the broader trend, just like a farmer aligns work with seasons.”
She explained simply. “Highest high plus lowest low divided by two. That’s the base idea. Nothing complex. The timing of the lines is what gives context.”
Muthu nodded. “So you don’t fight the season.”
“Yes,” Revathi said, “you work with it.”
A Pongal Promise and a Clear Path
The Pongal meal was ready. Banana leaves were laid out, and everyone sat together.
Karthik looked calmer than he had in months. “This makes sense. I don’t need to catch every move. I just need to stay with the right season.”
Revathi nodded. “Ichimoku helps many traders practise patience. It’s commonly studied in stocks, indices, and commodities where trends exist.”
She added, “When learning or practising, platforms like the Navia All In One App can help track trends without clutter.”
As the sun climbed and laughter filled the house, Karthik felt hopeful. Like Pongal marks a new harvest cycle, the cloud marked a new trading approach.
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