Weekly Wrap-up (OCT 30 – NOV 03, 2023)
Table of Contents
After two weeks of losses, the Indian benchmark indices rebounded, closing the week ending on November 3 with a one percent gain. This was driven by positive global market conditions following the decision by the US Federal Reserve to maintain unchanged key policy rates, resulting in a decrease in US treasury yields and a drop in crude oil prices, adding to the market’s volatility.
Indices Weekly Performance
During the week, the BSE Sensex recorded a 0.91 percent increase, equivalent to a gain of 580.98 points, and concluded at a closing value of 64,363.78. Similarly, the Nifty50 saw a rise of 0.96 percent, with an addition of 183.25 points, leading to a closing figure of 19,230.60.
Indices Analysis
NIFTY 50:
The positive momentum continued with the Nifty50 climbing above 19,200 for the first time in last eight consecutive sessions, on November 3, backed by positive global cues and uptrend across sectors. Now, the index is at crucial point (19,200), which acted as a strong support in the month of August followed by rally in September. If the index holds the same as a support and decisively surpasses 19,300, then the move towards 19,500-19,600 can be possible, but below 19,200 on lower side can keep the market rangebound with support at 19,100-19,000 levels
BANK NIFTY:
The Bank Nifty also gained momentum, and maintained 43,000 mark. The index rose 301 points to 43,318 and formed Doji candlestick pattern for third consecutive session, indicating the tug-of-war between bulls & bears for clear direction. Going ahead, 43,500 or 20-day EMA (exponential moving average) is expected to be crucial for further upmove towards 44,000.
Nifty Chart
We maintain a cautious stance on the Nifty, emphasizing the importance of waiting for a clear breakthrough above the 19,400 level to confirm a sustained recovery. While there are numerous stock-specific opportunities available, traders should prioritize careful stock selection. It’s worth noting that significant put writing is centered around the 19,200 mark, potentially serving as robust support for the Nifty. Additionally, the maximum open interest is associated with the 19,300 call option, indicating a bullish stance on the Nifty is only advisable if it manages to close above its critical 100-day moving average situated at 19,300.
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INDIA VIX
Market volatility saw a slight increase, with India Down VIX by 0.21 percent.
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Sectoral Performance
Among sectors, Realty index added 2.74 percent, Nifty ENERGY index rose 2.12 percent, Nifty FMCG index gained 0.99 percent, while METAL rose nearly 0.40 percent.
FII & DII Weekly Activity
Foreign institutional investors (FIIs) continued their selling as they sold equities worth Rs 5,522.38 crore, meanwhile, domestic institutional investors (DIIs) bought equities worth Rs 5073.60 crore.
Global Market
The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 5.07%, to close at 34,061.32, the S&P 500 gained 5.85%, to close at 4,358.34 and the Nasdaq Composite rose 6.61%, to close at 13,478.28.
Currency Indices
Indian rupee ended marginally lower against the US dollar at 83.12 in the week ended November 3 against October 27 closing of 83.24.
Commodity Market
In Friday’s session, gold initially showed an upward movement, reaching a high of 1995.30. However, it later experienced selling pressure, resulting in the formation of a small-bodied bullish candle, and it closed at 1993.90. In Asian trading, gold exhibited a flat opening as investors trimmed their bets on further hikes by the Federal Reserve. The current R1 is placed at 61,092, and S1 is positioned at 60,704.
After the bearish inverted hammer formation, In Friday’s session, crude oil formed a bullish candle with a lower shadow. Initially, after the consolidation, crude experienced selling pressure and touched a low of 66,905. In the evening session, it erased all selling pressure and closed at 68,960. A weaker USD and other geopolitical risks are supportive of crude oil’s movement. The current R1 is placed at 7,100, and S1 is positioned at 6,700.
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